Cup or Bust

Tonight starts the latter half of the season for the Washington Capitals. It is fitting their journey will begin with the team that knocked them out of the playoffs last season, the Montreal Canadians. Most Caps fans are concerned about their beloved team’s playoff run. With 31 games remaining from their 82 game schedule they are currently sitting in the number 5 seed, matched up against their rivals, Pittsburgh. (And in recent history we all know the outcome from this rivalry). They appear to be a shell of last year’s team; their goals per game are down more then a goal from last year, 3.82 to 2.71 and they are only on pace for 101 points, which would be 20 less then last year’s 121. These staggering differences in numbers would have any Washingtonian worried about their only team that has a legitimate chance of winning a championship for this city.

However, there are some significant numbers that are playing into the favor of the Capitals this season. The two biggest numbers to me are their goals against per game and the goals against average by their goalies. Last season the Caps ranked 16^th in the league in GA/G with a 2.77. Furthermore, out of the 16 teams that made the playoffs the Caps ranked 14^th in GA/G. This season they rank 7^th with a 2.45. Similarly last season Jose Theodore posted the leagues worse GAA, 2.81. This season Semyon Varlamov is posting the leagues 4^th best GAA, 2.16. To me these are playoff caliber numbers the Capitals have been missing the past few seasons.

In hockey the second half of the season turns more defensive minded as teams gear up to make the grueling playoff run. Generally fewer goals are scored and big moves are made at the trade deadline in attempts to sure up weak points. If this Capitals team’s defense continues to improve through the rest of the season, as is projected, they could have a real shot of drinking the heavenly nectar from Lord Stanley’s Cup.

The bigger concern for this season’s playoff run appears to be more about the offensive then the defensive. Ovie is not on pace to break any records this season, and the rest of the marquee players are all but nonexistent. This offensive sacrifice, no matter how much the fans hate it, is what is allowing the defense to be better. This team is playing a different style of hockey then they were last season. This time last season, Semin was curl and dragging around the league, and Green was constantly pushing up and scoring point blank wristers. Now, this team is playing a more compact, less open ice, style of hockey. This style of hockey does not allow for the offensive genius minds to thrive as much, but it does allow for everyone to get back on defense and cut down on odd man rushes and easy goals for the opponent. They have switched to a similar style of hockey that Montreal used against them last season in the playoffs.

The other piece of the equation that I believe will help the Caps is a big name trade by the deadline. Alexander Semin just signed another one-year deal worth $6.7 million, which put him on the same monetary level as Backstrom, except it is at 1/10 the length of the contract. According to GM GM (General Manager George McPhee) “This is what makes him comfortable. We can do one-year deals for the next ten years if he wishes.” With this contract extension the Caps top three players (Ovie, Backs, and Semin) are making a cool $25 million combined. It is the highest trio in the NHL to date. This is not economically sustainable. If they did not give him a contract extension the Capital would lose him to free agency at the end of the season. Likewise, if they would of traded him by the deadline then his value decreases because of his soon to be free agency situation. However, now that he will not be a free agent at the end of the season, this is the best time to sell. The Capitals could desperately use a second line center, and trading away a big name like Alexander Semin could catch you an all star caliber player. Heres looking at your Brad Richards. Richards (30) could bring the same veteran leadership that Fedorov brought the Caps two years ago in the playoffs. Richards is currently number 3 in the league in assists and number 6 in overall points. He is on pace for a career year and is just the type of player this new Capitals team could use.

Fear not Caps fans, this team will make some noise heading into the play offs this season. The defense is much improved from last year, and it still has all the offensive talent as last year. I believe trading Semin for a player like Richards could make the difference in the playoffs.

C-A-P-S CAPS CAPS CAPS!!